The Democratic Party’s advantage in voter registration has decreased in three crucial battleground states. Republican registrations in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada are far outpacing Democrats. This trend should be a significant red flag for Vice President Harris, as experts point out that there is a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration and the Democratic Party overall. 

The decrease in voter registration for Democrats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may explain why the Harris campaign is taking a more moderate stance on issues like fracking and tax policy. In Nevada, Democrats have also seen a drop in their voter registration advantage, but Harris allegedly still has a “clear lead over former President Trump” in the state’s polls. 

Berwood Yost, the director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, stated that since 2020, Democrats have lost about 300,000 voters, while Republicans have gained around 70,000. Additionally, the number of nonaffiliated independent voters has increased by about 83,000 to 85,000. 

Yost mentioned that the decrease in Democratic voter registration in some areas of Pennsylvania is due to “dissatisfaction with the party in power in Washington.” He added that many people view President Biden’s administration negatively. He said it’s a concerning trend, but they are trying to address it. 

Yost also cautioned that the drop in Democratic voter registration is a challenge for Harris in crucial swing counties like Erie, North Hampton, and Bucks, Pennsylvania, as well as in rural areas like Fayette County, where she wants to minimize Trump’s victory margin. He noted that while it’s a warning sign, they expected this race to be close. 

Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, explained that in Pennsylvania, older Democrats are passing away, and many voters who used to identify as “Reagan Democrats” are switching their party affiliation to Republican. She noted that more people are moving from Democratic registration to Republican registration. 

Putnam pointed out that this shift mainly involves individuals from Rust Belt communities who were previously registered as Democrats but have increasingly identified with Republicans. These voters change their registration to match their voting preferences. She added that the decline of union strength and the movement of economic activity away from these areas has weakened the Democratic advantage in Pennsylvania. 

Director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, David Paleologos, said that the Democrats’ voter registration advantage in North Carolina has decreased from 393,000 voters in 2020 to about 130,000 in 2024. He explained that there has been a general trend away from registering as a Democrat over the last four years. He also pointed out that in North Carolina, it has been chiefly a drop in the number of registered Democrats rather than a significant increase in Republican registrations. 

Paleologos pointed out that many people don’t understand that when Trump won North Carolina in 2020, there were about 390,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. 2024 the Democratic advantage decreased to around 130,000, a two-thirds reduction. He noted that even if Harris has made some gains or targeted specific voters, it seems Trump is positioned to increase his support in North Carolina. 

Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania and North Carolina recognize that their party’s voter registration advantage has decreased since Biden won Pennsylvania and narrowly lost North Carolina in 2020. They believe that the changing registration numbers are starting to reflect actual voting behavior, as some registered Democrats who have voted for Trump or other Republicans are now changing their party affiliation. 

They also argue that many new voters registering as independent or unaffiliated will likely support Harris over Trump. In North Carolina, Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson noted that younger voters largely support Harris but have registered as unaffiliated. He added that the primary reason for this trend is that both parties have a negative reputation. 

J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania, explained that when a Trump voter changes their registration from Democrat to Republican, it doesn’t necessarily mean voting in Pennsylvania will change in 2024, as it “reflects how they have been voting for years.” 

Republican strategist Constantin Querard notes that Republican voter registration has grown by 1.2 million nationwide, while Democratic voter registration has decreased by 800,000 since 2022. 

The Harris-Biden administration is already slow-walking aid to heavily Republican areas in storm-affected areas, hoping there will be no way for them to vote. Democrats can only hope for another hurricane as Trump seems poised to sweep the election in November.